🔗 Share this article

While dawn crept over the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, delegates remained trapped in a airless conference room, uncertain whether it was day or night. For more than 12 hours in difficult discussions, with numerous ministers representing multiple blocs of countries from the most vulnerable nations to the most developed economies.

Frustration mounted, the air thick as weary delegates acknowledged the grim reality: they would not reach a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The international climate negotiations teetered on the brink of total collapse.

The sticking point: Fossil fuels

Research has demonstrated for nearly a century, the greenhouse gases produced by consuming fossil fuels is heating up our planet to alarming levels.

However, during nearly three decades of regular climate meetings, the essential necessity to halt fossil fuel use has been mentioned only once – in a decision made two years ago at Cop28 to "move beyond fossil fuels". Representatives from the Gulf states, Russia, and several other countries were determined this would not happen again.

Growing momentum for change

At the same time, a expanding group of countries were equally determined that progress on this issue was vitally needed. They had developed a proposal that was attracting increasing support and made it apparent they were willing to hold firm.

Developing countries urgently needed to move forward on securing funding support to help them address the increasingly severe impacts of climate disasters.

Critical moment

By the early hours of Saturday, some delegates were prepared to walk out and cause breakdown. "It was on the edge for us," stated one national delegate. "I was prepared to walk away."

The breakthrough happened through talks with Saudi Arabia. Around 6am, senior representatives split from the main group to hold a private conversation with the head Saudi negotiator. They encouraged language that would obliquely recognise the global commitment to "shift from fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Unexpected agreement

As opposed to explicitly namechecking fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the UAE consensus". Upon deliberation, the Saudi delegation unforeseeably agreed to the wording.

Participants expressed relief. Cheers erupted. The settlement was finalized.

With what became known as the "Brazil agreement", the world took an incremental move towards the systematic reduction of fossil fuels – a hesitant, insufficient step that will scarcely affect the climate's steady march towards catastrophe. But nevertheless a notable change from complete stagnation.

Important aspects of the agreement

• Complementing the subtle acknowledgment in the legally agreed text, countries will begin work a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels
• This will be mostly a voluntary initiative led by Brazil that will report back next year
• Addressing the essential decreases in greenhouse gas emissions to remain below the 1.5C limit was likewise deferred to next year
• Developing countries obtained a threefold increase to $120bn of regular financial support to help them manage the impacts of climate disasters
• This sum will not be fully available until 2035
• Workers will benefit from a "just transition mechanism" to help people working in polluting businesses transition to the renewable industry

Mixed reactions

With global conditions approaches the brink of climate "tipping points" that could eliminate habitats and force whole regions into chaos, the agreement was not the "giant leap" needed.

"Negotiators delivered some modest progress in the proper course, but considering the severity of the climate crisis, it has failed to rise to the occasion," warned one policy director.

This imperfect deal might have been all that was possible, given the geopolitical headwinds – including a Washington administration who avoided the talks and remains aligned with oil and coal, the growing influence of nationalist politics, ongoing conflicts in different locations, unacceptable degrees of inequality, and global economic uncertainty.

"Fossil fuel corporations – the oil and gas companies – were ultimately in the crosshairs at these negotiations," comments one climate activist. "There is no turning back on that. The opportunity is available. Now we must convert it to a actual pathway to a safer world."

Deep fissures revealed

Although nations were able to celebrate the gavelling through of the deal, Cop30 also highlighted significant divisions in the sole international mechanism for addressing the climate crisis.

"UN negotiations are agreement-dependent, and in a time of geopolitical divides, unanimity is ever harder to reach," commented one international diplomat. "We should not suggest that Cop30 has delivered everything that is needed. The difference between our current position and what research requires remains concerningly substantial."

Should the world is to avoid the most severe impacts of climate crisis, the global discussions alone will prove insufficient.